Case 101 / 183 Analyst

Convertible Bonds

Capital Markets — ECM/DCM

The prompt

“As an equity-linked origination analyst, you are tasked with pricing a five-year convertible bond for a mid-cap technology issuer, splitting the instrument into its straight-debt and equity-option components, and explaining why the issuer chose a convertible over either plain vanilla debt or a follow-on equity offering.”

📋 What you're given

As an equity-linked origination analyst, you are tasked with pricing a five-year convertible bond for a mid-cap technology issuer, splitting the instrument into its straight-debt and equity-option components, and explaining why the issuer chose a convertible over either plain vanilla debt or a follow-on equity offering.

1. Task Overview

Task: Show how a convertible bond can be taken apart into the two instruments it really is, then use the terms below to demonstrate what each piece is worth at issue and what the structure costs and saves the company.

Step 1: Given Data — MidCap Tech AG, EUR 200m Convertible Issue

The bonds are placed at par in a single accelerated bookbuild, with a EUR 100,000 denomination per bond.

Line ItemValue
Reference Share Price at Pricing€40.00
Shares Outstanding100.0m
Convertible Issue Size€200.0m
Denomination (Par) per Bond€100,000
Issue Price100.0% of par
Annual Coupon1.50% (0.0150)
Maturity5 years
Conversion Premium over Reference Price30.0% (0.300)
Yield on Comparable Straight (Non-Convertible) Debt6.00% (0.0600)
Corporate Tax Rate25.0% (0.250)

Step 2: Conversion Price

Show Conversion Price Formula

Conversion Price = Reference Share Price × (1 + Conversion Premium)

Using this formula, compute the conversion price of the bonds.

Step 3: Conversion Ratio

Show Conversion Ratio Formula

Conversion Ratio = Par per Bond / Conversion Price

Using this formula, compute how many shares each bond converts into.

Step 4: Conversion Value (Parity)

Show Conversion Value Formula

Conversion Value (Parity) = Conversion Ratio × Current Share Price

Using this formula, compute the conversion value of one bond at pricing, and express it as a percentage of par.

Step 5: Straight Bond Floor (Investment Value)

Show Bond Floor Formula

Bond Floor = Coupon × [1 - (1 + y)^-n] / y + Par × (1 + y)^-n

Where: y = yield on comparable straight debt, n = years to maturity

Assume:

  • Coupons are paid annually in arrears, the first one twelve months after issue
  • The straight-debt yield of 6.00% (0.0600) applies to the full five-year term
  • Principal is repaid in a single bullet at maturity

Using these inputs, compute the bond floor of one bond, and express it as a percentage of par.

Step 6: Implied Value of the Embedded Conversion Option

Show Embedded Option Value Formula

Embedded Option Value = Issue Price - Bond Floor

Using this formula, compute what investors are implicitly paying for the right to convert, in euros per bond and as a percentage of par.

Step 7: Annual Cash Interest Saving versus Straight Debt

Show Interest Saving Formula

Pre-Tax Interest Saving = (Straight Debt Yield - Convertible Coupon) × Issue Size

After-Tax Interest Saving = Pre-Tax Interest Saving × (1 - Tax Rate)

Using these formulas, compute what the convertible saves the issuer in cash interest each year, before and after tax.

Step 8: Dilution on Full Conversion

Show Conversion Dilution Formula

New Shares on Conversion = Issue Size / Conversion Price

Dilution = New Shares / (Existing Shares + New Shares)

Assume the bonds are fully converted at maturity and no other equity is issued in the meantime.

Using these inputs, compute how many new shares are created and what percentage of the enlarged share count they represent.

💡 Model answer

Try answering out loud first — then reveal the model answer and compare.

⚠️ Common mistakes

  • Treating the conversion price as the current share price. The conversion price is struck at a premium to the reference price, so a 30% premium on a EUR 40.00 stock means conversion at EUR 52.00 — using EUR 40.00 overstates the conversion ratio and the dilution by roughly 30%.
  • Discounting the convertible's cash flows at its own 1.50% coupon yield instead of the 6.00% straight-debt yield. The bond floor is by definition what the paper is worth without the option, so it must be discounted at the issuer's non-convertible cost of debt; using the coupon simply returns par and makes the option look worthless.
  • Confusing parity with the bond floor. Parity (76.9% of par here) is the equity value of the conversion right; the floor (81.0% of par) is the debt value with no conversion right at all. They answer opposite questions and only coincide by accident.
  • Calling the low coupon a free lunch. The 4.50% annual coupon saving is paid for with roughly 19.0% of par in option value handed to investors up front — a convertible is cheap on cash interest and expensive on equity, not cheap on both.
  • Ignoring dilution until conversion actually happens. Under the if-converted method the underlying shares hit diluted EPS as soon as the instrument is dilutive, so an analyst who only counts basic shares will overstate per-share earnings for years before a single bond converts.

🔁 Follow-up questions

➡️ Related cases

Previous Case 100: High Yield vs. Investment Grade

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